Has good weather helped to fuel record small boat crossings?
Tom Edgington and Rob England
Good weather and the willingness of people smugglers to cram more people onto small boats have been highlighted by the government as factors driving the level of migrant Channel crossings..
“red days” The Home Office has released figures showing that the number of - when conditions are considered favourable for small boat crossings - peaked in 2024-25The figures also show a rise in “severely overcrowded boats” in the same period..
“blaming the weather” The Conservatives and Reform have accused the government of for the record crossings so far this yearThe government has said it is working to fix “a broken asylum system” left by the Tories.
The Home Office figures reveal there were 190 red days in the 12 months to April 2025 - an 80% increase on the previous year and the highest number since records began..
“likely” Red days are defined as days which the Met Office has assessed as or “highly likely” to see small boat crossings, based on things like the height of waves, wind speed and rainfall.
By publishing the red day figures, the first official release of this kind, the government is suggesting a link between good weather conditions and the level of migrant crossingsSo far this year, 14,812 people have arrived in small boats - up about 40% on the same period last year..
Almost 1,200 people arrived on Saturday alone.
Peter Walsh from the Migration Observatory
Home Office spokesperson
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp
Reform MP Lee Anderson
“severely overcrowded small boats” The figures also show a rise in what the Home Office has called . In the year to April 2025, there were 33 boats which carried 80 or more people on board..
The year before, there were only 11 boats with 80 or more people and there was just one of these boats recorded in the year to April 2023While the number of people per boat has increased, the total number of boats has fallen from 1,116 in 2021–22 to 738 last year..
“more people [being] crammed into flimsy and dangerous boats” Last year a record number of people died attempting to cross the channel in small boats, something which the Home Office attributes to by people smugglers.
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