Global Smartphone Market Set for Gradual Recovery in 2021

After a challenging 2020 marked by an 11% year-over-year decline in production (down to 1.25 billion units), the smartphone industry is poised for cautious optimism. According to TrendForce’s latest analysis, global smartphone production is expected to rebound by 9% in 2021, reaching approximately 1.36 billion units.

Key Growth Drivers

  • Device replacement cycles: Consumers upgrading older smartphones
  • Emerging market demand: Increased adoption in developing regions

However, this recovery remains fragile due to two critical factors:

  1. Ongoing pandemic-related economic uncertainty
  2. The global semiconductor shortage disrupting electronics manufacturing

Major Shifts in Market Leadership

2020 Top Performers (by production volume):

  1. Samsung
  2. Apple
  3. Huawei
  4. Xiaomi
  5. OPPO
  6. Vivo

Projected 2021 Rankings:

  1. Samsung
  2. Apple
  3. Xiaomi
  4. OPPO
  5. Vivo
  6. Transsion (new entrant)

These six brands are expected to dominate 80% of the global market, while Huawei falls to seventh place.

Huawei’s Dramatic Decline: Causes and Consequences

The Chinese tech giant’s drop from the top six stems primarily from its divestment of Honor, its budget smartphone brand. In November 2020, Huawei sold Honor to a consortium to protect the division from U.S. trade restrictions.

Market Share Projections:

  • Huawei: Expected to hold just 4% market share in 2021 (down from 17% in 2019)
  • Honor: Projected to capture 2% as an independent entity

TrendForce analysts note: “It remains uncertain whether the new Honor can maintain consumer appeal without Huawei’s support. Furthermore, Huawei and Honor may become direct compe*****s—especially if Huawei eventually overcomes U.S. sanctions.”

Winners in the New Landscape

As Huawei’s market presence shrinks, compe*****s stand to gain:

  • Apple: Positioned to capture Huawei’s premium smartphone segment
  • Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo: Expected to benefit in mid-range markets
  • Transsion: Emerging as a new force in global rankings

This redistribution comes as the industry continues grappling with 5G adoption challenges that failed to boost 2020 sales as anticipated.

Looking Ahead

While 2021 promises modest recovery, smartphone manufacturers face ongoing challenges from supply chain constraints and evolving geopolitical factors. The industry’s resilience will depend on navigating these complexities while meeting changing consumer demands in a post-pandemic world.


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