US Holiday E-Commerce Sales Poised for Major Growth
Key Forecasts Show Digital Shopping Boom
Leading retail analysts predict a significant surge in US online holiday sales despite ongoing pandemic challenges. According to new reports from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and eMarketer, e-commerce is driving overall retail growth while brick-and-mortar stores face declines.
NRF’s Optimistic Outlook
The NRF forecasts:
- 3.6%-5.2% total holiday sales growth (Nov-Dec)
- \(755.3B-\)766.7B projected total sales
- 20%-30% increase in online/non-store sales (\(202.5B-\)218.4B)
“Consumers appear ready to spend more this season,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “After a challenging year, many feel they deserve a better-than-normal holiday.”
Image: NRF holiday sales forecast
eMarketer’s More Conservative View
eMarketer projects:
- 0.9% total retail growth (lowest since tracking began)
- 35.8% e-commerce growth (highest on record)
- 4.7% decline in brick-and-mortar sales
Image: eMarketer retail projections
Why the Discrepancy?
The variance stems from different calculation methods:
- NRF excludes auto, gas, and restaurant sales
- eMarketer includes auto/gas but excludes restaurants/travel
E-Commerce Trends Driving Growth
Key factors fueling digital sales:
- 36.7% YoY Q3 online sales growth
- 42% of consumers started holiday shopping early
- 10.6% October 2020 retail sales increase vs. 2019
Major retailers like Walmart and Target are benefiting from:
- Enhanced digital shopping experiences
- Flexible fulfillment options (ship-to-home, in-store pickup, curbside)
Holiday Shopping Day Projections
eMarketer predicts these top digital shopping days:
- Cyber Monday: $12.89B
- Black Friday: $10.20B
- Thanksgiving Day: 49.5% YoY growth (highest)
Image: eMarketer’s top shopping day projections
Mobile Shopping Boom
App Annie reports:
- 110M+ hours expected in shopping apps during Black Friday/Cyber Monday weeks
- 4h 20m average daily mobile usage (pandemic acceleration)
- 61M hours spent shopping during Prime Day week
Seasonal Employment Outlook
NRF expects:
- 475,000-575,000 seasonal hires
- Slightly below 2019’s 562,000 workers
- Earlier hiring due to accelerated shopping timelines
The Bottom Line
While forecasts vary, all indicators point to:
- Record e-commerce growth (20%-35% increases)
- Continued challenges for physical retailers
- Mobile dominance in digital shopping experiences
- Earlier, more spread-out holiday shopping patterns
